GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-value-116
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Elections): "Will drop out of the the 2026 California gubernatorial race before Apr 12, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 5.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}