GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-11

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 52.0, "implied_p": 0.52}
score	{"id": "market-value-11", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Xander Schauffele beat Russell Henley in the 1st round of the RBC Heritage?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 52.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

no_bet, bet_size = 0.

Without any information advantage, my best probability estimate equals the market's implied 41%, giving zero expected value (Kelly fraction `f* = (q − p)/(1 − p) = 0`). No edge → no bet.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.41,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "no_bet, bet_size = 0.\n\nWithout any information advantage, my best probability estimate equals the market's implied 41%, giving zero expected value (Kelly fraction `f* = (q \u2212 p)/(1 \u2212 p) = 0`). No edge \u2192 no bet.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.727033853530884
}