GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-10
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 7.0, "implied_p": 0.07} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4623655913978495, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Jesper De Jong win the Cerundolo vs De Jong: Qualification Final match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 7.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet** (bet_size = 0) Rationale: The market prices YES at 7¢ → implied ~7% probability of De Jong winning. Cerundolo is a far more established player, so 7% is plausible and I have no information edge over the market. Without a genuine edge, any positive bet is negative EV net of the bid-ask/kelly discipline. No edge = no bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.07,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet** (bet_size = 0)\n\nRationale: The market prices YES at 7\u00a2 \u2192 implied ~7% probability of De Jong winning. Cerundolo is a far more established player, so 7% is plausible and I have no information edge over the market. Without a genuine edge, any positive bet is negative EV net of the ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.156213998794556
}