GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-99
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-99", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.25, "prob_error": 0.5, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~50%. A 15-minute ETH move is nearly a random walk — P(up) ≈ P(down) ≈ 0.5, with only a tiny drift, so the true probability is nowhere near 0.001. The market is wildly mispriced: at $0.001/share vs ~$0.50 fair value, buying YES has enormous positive EV (≈500×). I'd bet YES heavily within position sizing limits.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.5,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~50%.\n\nA 15-minute ETH move is nearly a random walk \u2014 P(up) \u2248 P(down) \u2248 0.5, with only a tiny drift, so the true probability is nowhere near 0.001. The market is wildly mispriced: at $0.001/share vs ~$0.50 fair value, buying YES has enormous positive EV (\u2248500\u00d7). I'd bet YES heavily within position s",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.377495050430298
}