GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-97
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-97", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004000000000000007, "prob_error": 0.020000000000000018, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >104.99 on Apr 2, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**0.98** (~98%) I largely defer to the market's near-certain pricing (0.99) since I have no private information edge on WTI. I shade slightly below consensus to account for the tail risk of a large negative shock (OPEC+ supply decision, macro/China demand data, geopolitical de-escalation) that the concentrated market may underweight. I'd bet small or nothing at 99¢; the edge doesn't justify much position.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.98,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**0.98** (~98%)\n\nI largely defer to the market's near-certain pricing (0.99) since I have no private information edge on WTI. I shade slightly below consensus to account for the tail risk of a large negative shock (OPEC+ supply decision, macro/China demand data, geopolitical de-escalation) that the ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.645994901657104
}