GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-97

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-97", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004000000000000007, "prob_error": 0.020000000000000018, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Malik Ellison win the Ballislife x OTD 1v1 between Dominique "Left Hand Dom" Alexander and Malik Ellison?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**0.98** (~98%)

I largely defer to the market's near-certain pricing (0.99) since I have no private information edge on WTI. I shade slightly below consensus to account for the tail risk of a large negative shock (OPEC+ supply decision, macro/China demand data, geopolitical de-escalation) that the concentrated market may underweight. I'd bet small or nothing at 99¢; the edge doesn't justify much position.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.98,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**0.98** (~98%)\n\nI largely defer to the market's near-certain pricing (0.99) since I have no private information edge on WTI. I shade slightly below consensus to account for the tail risk of a large negative shock (OPEC+ supply decision, macro/China demand data, geopolitical de-escalation) that the ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.645994901657104
}