GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-95

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 68.0, "implied_p": 0.68}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-95", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7024.9999 on Apr 15, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 68.00 cents (implied probability 0.680). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **~0.40**.

99 cents (~99%) is implausible for a single Championship football match between two mid-table clubs — the market is almost certainly stale, illiquid, or mispriced (a home win for Oxford would typically sit around 35–45%). I don't anchor to it; I'd estimate Oxford wins at home against Hull at roughly 40%.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.99,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **~0.40**.\n\n99 cents (~99%) is implausible for a single Championship football match between two mid-table clubs \u2014 the market is almost certainly stale, illiquid, or mispriced (a home win for Oxford would typically sit around 35\u201345%). I don't anchor to it; I'd estimate Oxford wins at ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 17.266713857650757
}