GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-94
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.2, "implied_p": 0.992} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-94", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.990025, "prob_error": 0.995, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 99.20 cents (implied probability 0.992). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.50–0.55**, not 0.992. Reasoning: a 15-minute directional move on ETH is close to a coin flip — 15-min vol (~0.3–0.5%) dwarfs any drift, so the prior is ~0.5. The 99.2¢ price is almost certainly a stale/thin-market artifact; short-horizon crypto markets routinely sit at extreme prices and resolve far below them. I'd shrink the market price almost entirely toward the prior. With $1,000: buy NO at ~0.8¢. Kelly on NO is ~half the bankroll (EV is enormous if P(YES) is really ≤0.6).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.005,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.50\u20130.55**, not 0.992.\n\nReasoning: a 15-minute directional move on ETH is close to a coin flip \u2014 15-min vol (~0.3\u20130.5%) dwarfs any drift, so the prior is ~0.5. The 99.2\u00a2 price is almost certainly a stale/thin-market artifact; short-horizon crypto mar",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 32.39039993286133
}