GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-94

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-94", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 2.5e-05, "prob_error": 0.005, "calibration_bin": 0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.155?". The market currently prices YES at 77.00 cents (implied probability 0.770). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.50–0.55**, not 0.992.

Reasoning: a 15-minute directional move on ETH is close to a coin flip — 15-min vol (~0.3–0.5%) dwarfs any drift, so the prior is ~0.5. The 99.2¢ price is almost certainly a stale/thin-market artifact; short-horizon crypto markets routinely sit at extreme prices and resolve far below them. I'd shrink the market price almost entirely toward the prior.

With $1,000: buy NO at ~0.8¢. Kelly on NO is ~half the bankroll (EV is enormous if P(YES) is really ≤0.6).

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.005,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.50\u20130.55**, not 0.992.\n\nReasoning: a 15-minute directional move on ETH is close to a coin flip \u2014 15-min vol (~0.3\u20130.5%) dwarfs any drift, so the prior is ~0.5. The 99.2\u00a2 price is almost certainly a stale/thin-market artifact; short-horizon crypto mar",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 32.39039993286133
}