GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-92
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-92", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.7224999999999999, "prob_error": 0.85, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cincinnati wins by over 4.5 runs?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~15% (0.15) for YES. Winning by 5+ runs in an MLB game is typically a 10–20% event depending on how strong a favorite Cincinnati is; a 99-cent YES (market implied ~99%) is far off. The edge is on NO at ~1 cent — expected value ~0.85 per cent wagered.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.15,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~15% (0.15) for YES.\n\nWinning by 5+ runs in an MLB game is typically a 10\u201320% event depending on how strong a favorite Cincinnati is; a 99-cent YES (market implied ~99%) is far off. The edge is on NO at ~1 cent \u2014 expected value ~0.85 per cent wagered.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.578819036483765
}