GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-91

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 69.0, "implied_p": 0.69}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-91", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004000000000000007, "prob_error": 0.020000000000000018, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Tyson Fury say during Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek FINAL PRESS CONFERENCE?". The market currently prices YES at 69.00 cents (implied probability 0.690). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

Without knowing the resolution threshold (the question omits it), I'd price ~0.98–0.99, slightly below the market's 0.990. That small discount is resolution risk: vague "price on a date" markets invite ambiguous judgments. I'd be a marginal seller at 99¢, not a buyer.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.98,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "Without knowing the resolution threshold (the question omits it), I'd price ~0.98\u20130.99, slightly below the market's 0.990. That small discount is resolution risk: vague \"price on a date\" markets invite ambiguous judgments. I'd be a marginal seller at 99\u00a2, not a buyer.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.064578771591187
}