GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-90
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-90", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Melania Trump say during Fostering the Future Together Global Coalition Summit on March 25th?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.96** Reasoning: The market at 99 cents is a strong signal, and I have no private information contradicting it, so I defer heavily toward it. But I shade slightly below 0.99 because I don't know the exact "mentions" resolution criteria — ambiguities in what counts as a mention, last-minute schedule changes, or speaker substitution are small but real tail risks that I can't rule out given my lack of specifics about this event.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.96,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.96**\n\nReasoning: The market at 99 cents is a strong signal, and I have no private information contradicting it, so I defer heavily toward it. But I shade slightly below 0.99 because I don't know the exact \"mentions\" resolution criteria \u2014 ambiguities in what counts as a mention, l",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 13.303017854690552
}