GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-90
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-90", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 30000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 77.00 cents (implied probability 0.770). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.96** Reasoning: The market at 99 cents is a strong signal, and I have no private information contradicting it, so I defer heavily toward it. But I shade slightly below 0.99 because I don't know the exact "mentions" resolution criteria — ambiguities in what counts as a mention, last-minute schedule changes, or speaker substitution are small but real tail risks that I can't rule out given my lack of specifics about this event.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.96,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.96**\n\nReasoning: The market at 99 cents is a strong signal, and I have no private information contradicting it, so I defer heavily toward it. But I shade slightly below 0.99 because I don't know the exact \"mentions\" resolution criteria \u2014 ambiguities in what counts as a mention, l",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 13.303017854690552
}