GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-89
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-89", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004000000000000007, "prob_error": 0.020000000000000018, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 28, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.98. I'd shade slightly below the 0.99 market price to account for the small risk that the market is mispriced or that liquidity/settlement quirks affect resolution, but with no strong signal against YES, I stay close to the market's assessment.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.98,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.98. I'd shade slightly below the 0.99 market price to account for the small risk that the market is mispriced or that liquidity/settlement quirks affect resolution, but with no strong signal against YES, I stay close to the market's assessment.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.45499873161316
}