GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-88
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 67.0, "implied_p": 0.67} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-88", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.9409, "prob_error": 0.97, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "HIFK Helsinki vs KalPa Kuopio Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 67.00 cents (implied probability 0.670). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.97. I shade below the 0.99 market price: extreme favorites are systematically overpriced (favorite-longshot bias), and I have no independent information about this specific matchup.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.97,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.97. I shade below the 0.99 market price: extreme favorites are systematically overpriced (favorite-longshot bias), and I have no independent information about this specific matchup.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.287997961044312
}