GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-85
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-85", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004000000000000007, "prob_error": 0.020000000000000018, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Marco Cecchinato win the Harris vs Cecchinato : Round Of 16 match?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.98–0.99**. Rationale: With no private information, the market price (0.99) is my best starting point, but I shade slightly below it to account for bid-ask friction and edge cases (match cancellation, withdrawal, resolution disputes) that can make extreme prices systematically overstated. I'll commit to **0.98**.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.98,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that this market resolves YES: **~0.98\u20130.99**.\n\nRationale: With no private information, the market price (0.99) is my best starting point, but I shade slightly below it to account for bid-ask friction and edge cases (match cancellation, withdrawal, resolution disputes) that can make e",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.110316753387451
}