GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-84
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-84", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000044, "prob_error": 0.050000000000000044, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 14?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.92** (roughly 90–95%). Rationale: I don't have live price data, but a specific-date, specific-price binary like "touches $75k on April 14" carries real tail risk (flash crash, oracle/market resolution failure, liquidity gaps), so 0.999 overprices YES. If my p=0.92 is right, buying NO at 0.001 has EV ≈ 0.08 − 0.92×0.001 ≈ **+0.079/share** → buy NO.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.95,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.92** (roughly 90\u201395%).\n\nRationale: I don't have live price data, but a specific-date, specific-price binary like \"touches $75k on April 14\" carries real tail risk (flash crash, oracle/market resolution failure, liquidity gaps), so 0.999 overprices YES.\n\nIf my p=0.92 is right, bu",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.911176204681396
}