GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-83
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 45.0, "implied_p": 0.45} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-83", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Will ADL have At Least 40000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for April 2, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 45.00 cents (implied probability 0.450). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'll ground my estimate in data before giving a probability. Let me check the historical Bitcoin price around the resolution date.
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'll ground my estimate in data before giving a probability. Let me check the historical Bitcoin price around the resolution date.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 31.097448110580444
}