GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-83
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 91.0, "implied_p": 0.91} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-83", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 91.00 cents (implied probability 0.910). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'll ground my estimate in data before giving a probability. Let me check the historical Bitcoin price around the resolution date.
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'll ground my estimate in data before giving a probability. Let me check the historical Bitcoin price around the resolution date.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 31.097448110580444
}