GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-82
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 40.0, "implied_p": 0.4} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-82", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "prob_error": 0.05, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?". The market currently prices YES at 40.00 cents (implied probability 0.400). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.90. I'd shade slightly below the market's 0.94. "Touch below 6500" markets (with a prominent round-number threshold) tend to run hot because buyers anchor on crash scenarios, and I have no strong private signal about the actual index level in Aug 2026. Still, with ~5 months of runway and intra-year drawdowns of 5%+ being near-annual events, I agree a dip below 6500 is much more likely than not. My position given a $1000 bankroll and my edge: I'd buy NO only if there's a market to short YES, since 0.90 vs 0.94 is a thin edge; otherwise I'd stay out.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.90.\n\nI'd shade slightly below the market's 0.94. \"Touch below 6500\" markets (with a prominent round-number threshold) tend to run hot because buyers anchor on crash scenarios, and I have no strong private signal about the actual index level in Aug 2026. Still, with ~5 months of runway and intra-ye",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 24.727633237838745
}