GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-82
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-82", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.9025, "prob_error": 0.95, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01 by Jan 1, 2027?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.90. I'd shade slightly below the market's 0.94. "Touch below 6500" markets (with a prominent round-number threshold) tend to run hot because buyers anchor on crash scenarios, and I have no strong private signal about the actual index level in Aug 2026. Still, with ~5 months of runway and intra-year drawdowns of 5%+ being near-annual events, I agree a dip below 6500 is much more likely than not. My position given a $1000 bankroll and my edge: I'd buy NO only if there's a market to short YES, since 0.90 vs 0.94 is a thin edge; otherwise I'd stay out.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.05,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.90.\n\nI'd shade slightly below the market's 0.94. \"Touch below 6500\" markets (with a prominent round-number threshold) tend to run hot because buyers anchor on crash scenarios, and I have no strong private signal about the actual index level in Aug 2026. Still, with ~5 months of runway and intra-ye",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 24.727633237838745
}