GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-81
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 87.0, "implied_p": 0.87} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-81", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.022500000000000006, "prob_error": 0.15000000000000002, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Politics): "Will number of transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 20 from Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 15, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 87.00 cents (implied probability 0.870). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.85. I have no direct access to IMF PortWatch data, so I anchor on the market's 0.87 but shade slightly toward the mean given (a) uncertainty about which chokepoint/channel this covers and (b) weekly variability in shipping transits around any threshold. I don't see a strong reason to move more than ~2 cents off the market consensus. With $1000 bankroll, I'd want ~$50–60 on YES at 87¢ if no fees (edge ~0.02 vs. risk).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.85,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.85.\n\nI have no direct access to IMF PortWatch data, so I anchor on the market's 0.87 but shade slightly toward the mean given (a) uncertainty about which chokepoint/channel this covers and (b) weekly variability in shipping transits around any threshold. I don't see a strong reason to move more t",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.927199125289917
}