GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-80
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 90.0, "implied_p": 0.9} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-80", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 1.6e-05, "prob_error": 0.004, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?". The market currently prices YES at 90.00 cents (implied probability 0.900). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: ~0.87 that this resolves YES. Reasoning: the market at 0.90 already embeds a high base rate, but the time/geography scope is unspecified, and my outside info on average gas prices crossing $4.14 is weak—so I'd shade modestly below the market rather than defer to it. With a $1000 bankroll and a ~3¢ edge, a Kelly-style bet would be small (~0.4% of bankroll, ≈$4); realistically I'd pass unless I had stronger evidence.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": 0.004,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.004,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: ~0.87 that this resolves YES.\n\nReasoning: the market at 0.90 already embeds a high base rate, but the time/geography scope is unspecified, and my outside info on average gas prices crossing $4.14 is weak\u2014so I'd shade modestly below the market rather than defer to it. With a $1000 ban",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 9.764359951019287
}