GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-79

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 47.0, "implied_p": 0.47}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-79", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.8835999999999999, "prob_error": 0.94, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.02?". The market currently prices YES at 47.00 cents (implied probability 0.470). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **0.94** — I have no strong private information about this match, so the market's implied probability of 94% is the best estimate.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.94,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **0.94** \u2014 I have no strong private information about this match, so the market's implied probability of 94% is the best estimate.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 11.350826025009155
}