GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-78
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-78", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 runs?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Roughly **0.30** (30%). Reasoning: "Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 runs" = Pittsburgh wins the game AND wins by 3+ runs. Even a strong favorite (say ~60-65% to win outright) only wins by 3+ runs maybe 28-35% of the time, since run-margin blowouts of 3+ are uncommon. The market's 0.94 looks badly overpriced relative to any realistic base rate, so I'd ignore the anchor and price far below it. With a $1000 bankroll this is a classic value bet against the market — but since you only asked for my probability: ~0.30.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Roughly **0.30** (30%).\n\nReasoning: \"Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 runs\" = Pittsburgh wins the game AND wins by 3+ runs. Even a strong favorite (say ~60-65% to win outright) only wins by 3+ runs maybe 28-35% of the time, since run-margin blowouts of 3+ are uncommon. The market's 0.94 looks badly overp",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 17.592390060424805
}