GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-75
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-75", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.006399999999999993, "prob_error": 0.07999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.92. The market price is the best aggregate estimate; I have no information edge to deviate from it, so with a $1000 bankroll Kelly sizing would suggest betting ~$0 (no expected edge).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.92,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.92. The market price is the best aggregate estimate; I have no information edge to deviate from it, so with a $1000 bankroll Kelly sizing would suggest betting ~$0 (no expected edge).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.376806020736694
}