GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-75
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 59.0, "implied_p": 0.59} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-75", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.8464, "prob_error": 0.92, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Gunnar Henderson: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 59.00 cents (implied probability 0.590). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.92. The market price is the best aggregate estimate; I have no information edge to deviate from it, so with a $1000 bankroll Kelly sizing would suggest betting ~$0 (no expected edge).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.92,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.92. The market price is the best aggregate estimate; I have no information edge to deviate from it, so with a $1000 bankroll Kelly sizing would suggest betting ~$0 (no expected edge).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.376806020736694
}