GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-74
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 82.0, "implied_p": 0.82} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-74", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.04839999999999999, "prob_error": 0.21999999999999997, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.40 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 82.00 cents (implied probability 0.820). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on my knowledge, XRP has traded well above $1.40 for extended periods (spot ~$2+), and no event suggests a collapse below that threshold by April 2026. I'd put my probability at **~0.78** — slightly below the market's 0.82, since crypto tail risks and the trimmed-mean construction (which can dip with a sharp selloff) argue for some discount to the market price.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.78,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on my knowledge, XRP has traded well above $1.40 for extended periods (spot ~$2+), and no event suggests a collapse below that threshold by April 2026. I'd put my probability at **~0.78** \u2014 slightly below the market's 0.82, since crypto tail risks and the trimmed-mean construction (which can d",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.3646719455719
}