GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-74

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 46.0, "implied_p": 0.46}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-74", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.6084, "prob_error": 0.78, "calibration_bin": 7}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Denver win the 1H by over 4.5 points?". The market currently prices YES at 46.00 cents (implied probability 0.460). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

Based on my knowledge, XRP has traded well above $1.40 for extended periods (spot ~$2+), and no event suggests a collapse below that threshold by April 2026. I'd put my probability at **~0.78** — slightly below the market's 0.82, since crypto tail risks and the trimmed-mean construction (which can dip with a sharp selloff) argue for some discount to the market price.

Parsed

{
 "action": "stand",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.78,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "Based on my knowledge, XRP has traded well above $1.40 for extended periods (spot ~$2+), and no event suggests a collapse below that threshold by April 2026. I'd put my probability at **~0.78** \u2014 slightly below the market's 0.82, since crypto tail risks and the trimmed-mean construction (which can d",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 13.3646719455719
}