GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-73
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 48.0, "implied_p": 0.48} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-73", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0036000000000000064, "prob_error": 0.06000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Minnesota win the 1H by over 5.5 points?". The market currently prices YES at 48.00 cents (implied probability 0.480). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability ≈ 0.94 (matches the market's implied probability). I have no information edge on 15-minute ETH price moves, so the best estimate is the market price itself. With $1000 and no edge, expected value of betting either side is ~zero, so I wouldn't trade.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.94,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability \u2248 0.94 (matches the market's implied probability). I have no information edge on 15-minute ETH price moves, so the best estimate is the market price itself. With $1000 and no edge, expected value of betting either side is ~zero, so I wouldn't trade.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.902991771697998
}