GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-72
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-72", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.022500000000000006, "prob_error": 0.15000000000000002, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.85** (85%). The market's 0.94 is informative, but I shade it down: I have no private data on the reference window/average, and extreme-consensus markets often run slightly hot on the favorite. Without a defined averaging period, the "average gas price above $4.11" bar is a high threshold relative to typical multi-year means, so I'd want more than 0.94 before paying up.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.85,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.85** (85%).\n\nThe market's 0.94 is informative, but I shade it down: I have no private data on the reference window/average, and extreme-consensus markets often run slightly hot on the favorite. Without a defined averaging period, the \"average gas price above $4.11\" bar is a high ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.484946966171265
}