GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-71
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-71", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't give a well-calibrated probability: the question omits the resolution threshold ("Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026" above *what* level?). Without it, any number is ungrounded.
If I take the question literally as "my posterior estimate for the event the market is pricing," I'd anchor near the market: the current price is a strong signal, and prediction markets tend to slightly overprice favorites, so I'd say **~0.88–0.90**, just below the quoted 0.92.
If you provide the resolution criteria (e.g., "above $120,000"), I can give a real estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.88,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't give a well-calibrated probability: the question omits the resolution threshold (\"Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026\" above *what* level?). Without it, any number is ungrounded.\n\nIf I take the question literally as \"my posterior estimate for the event the market is pricing,\" I'd anchor near the m",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 17.78373408317566
}