GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-70
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-70", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.004899999999999993, "prob_error": 0.06999999999999995, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6499.9999 on Apr 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: 0.93** (~93%) My view is anchored close to the market's 0.920 — I don't have a strong independent signal on the S&P 500 level as of Apr 2, 2026, and markets at this price typically embed substantial information. My slight edge over the ask reflects the asymmetry that a big down-move below 6500 would require an extreme shock; I'd put the risk of that at ~7%. **Bet: ~$60–70 on YES** (half-Kelly) With $1000 bankroll, full Kelly on a 1.9% edge (0.93 vs 0.920) is ~12.6% (~$126); I'd take half-Kelly given the uncertainty in my own probability estimate. Position: ~60 shares of YES at 92¢, costing ~$55. Best case profit ~$5 per share, worst case loss ~$55.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.93,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: 0.93** (~93%)\n\nMy view is anchored close to the market's 0.920 \u2014 I don't have a strong independent signal on the S&P 500 level as of Apr 2, 2026, and markets at this price typically embed substantial information. My slight edge over the ask reflects the asymmetry that a big down-mo",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.64696192741394
}