GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-7

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-7", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.16000000000000003, "prob_error": 0.4, "calibration_bin": 4}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will DRX Challengers win map 1 in the DRX Challengers vs. Gen.G Global Academy match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability that YES resolves: **~40%** (with uncertainty ranging 30–50%).

Rationale: a road team ("Washington") winning at a home team ("Utah") in any major pro/college sport is generally a 25–50% event. The market's 1.00¢ price implies 1%, which is far outside any realistic range for a real sporting contest — a clear mispricing. Given a $1000 bankroll, I'd buy YES up to roughly 30–35¢ and expect strong positive EV.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.4,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability that YES resolves: **~40%** (with uncertainty ranging 30\u201350%).\n\nRationale: a road team (\"Washington\") winning at a home team (\"Utah\") in any major pro/college sport is generally a 25\u201350% event. The market's 1.00\u00a2 price implies 1%, which is far outside any realistic range for a real sp",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 21.4636652469635
}