GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-7
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-7", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.16000000000000003, "prob_error": 0.4, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Washington at Utah Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that YES resolves: **~40%** (with uncertainty ranging 30–50%).
Rationale: a road team ("Washington") winning at a home team ("Utah") in any major pro/college sport is generally a 25–50% event. The market's 1.00¢ price implies 1%, which is far outside any realistic range for a real sporting contest — a clear mispricing. Given a $1000 bankroll, I'd buy YES up to roughly 30–35¢ and expect strong positive EV.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.4,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that YES resolves: **~40%** (with uncertainty ranging 30\u201350%).\n\nRationale: a road team (\"Washington\") winning at a home team (\"Utah\") in any major pro/college sport is generally a 25\u201350% event. The market's 1.00\u00a2 price implies 1%, which is far outside any realistic range for a real sp",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.4636652469635
}