GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-69
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-69", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0625, "prob_error": 0.25, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Malik Ellison win the Ballislife x OTD 1v1 between Dominique "Left Hand Dom" Alexander and Malik Ellison?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.75 — with no private information about the matchup, I anchor to the market price.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.75,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.75 \u2014 with no private information about the matchup, I anchor to the market price.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.556013822555542
}