GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-68
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 65.0, "implied_p": 0.65} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-68", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the March Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?". The market currently prices YES at 65.00 cents (implied probability 0.650). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**0.70** Banxico's easing cycle is well underway with inflation converging toward target, making a follow-up 25bp cut the base case. The market's 65¢ already prices this in; I'd lean slightly above it given the momentum of consecutive cuts and the March board's dovish lean, though the remaining ~30% reflects hawkish dissent and FX/data surprises.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**0.70**\n\nBanxico's easing cycle is well underway with inflation converging toward target, making a follow-up 25bp cut the base case. The market's 65\u00a2 already prices this in; I'd lean slightly above it given the momentum of consecutive cuts and the March board's dovish lean, though the remaining ~30",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.795746088027954
}