GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-67

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 42.0, "implied_p": 0.42}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-67", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Mar 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 42.00 cents (implied probability 0.420). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**0.70**

Close to the market's 0.68 but nudged up slightly — my prior on the S&P 500 sitting near 7000 in mid-April 2026 is consistent with consensus equity forecasts, and I have no information that would move me far from the market-clearing price. I can't verify the actual level, so the market price is my best signal.

Parsed

{
 "action": "walk",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.7,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**0.70**\n\nClose to the market's 0.68 but nudged up slightly \u2014 my prior on the S&P 500 sitting near 7000 in mid-April 2026 is consistent with consensus equity forecasts, and I have no information that would move me far from the market-clearing price. I can't verify the actual level, so the market pri",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 21.82923913002014
}