GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-67
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 68.0, "implied_p": 0.68} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-67", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7024.9999 on Apr 15, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 68.00 cents (implied probability 0.680). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**0.70** Close to the market's 0.68 but nudged up slightly — my prior on the S&P 500 sitting near 7000 in mid-April 2026 is consistent with consensus equity forecasts, and I have no information that would move me far from the market-clearing price. I can't verify the actual level, so the market price is my best signal.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.7,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**0.70**\n\nClose to the market's 0.68 but nudged up slightly \u2014 my prior on the S&P 500 sitting near 7000 in mid-April 2026 is consistent with consensus equity forecasts, and I have no information that would move me far from the market-clearing price. I can't verify the actual level, so the market pri",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 21.82923913002014
}