GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-65
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 62.0, "implied_p": 0.62} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-65", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 60000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 62.00 cents (implied probability 0.620). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~0.80.** Reasoning: A threshold of 60k is low — outside recessions, monthly nonfarm payrolls almost always land well above it (typical prints are 100k+). Base-rate P(>60k) in an expansion is roughly 0.90+. Discounting for a meaningful 2026 recession risk (say 20–30%) and continued public-sector contraction (federal layoffs can drag the headline even when private payrolls hold up), I land around 0.75–0.85. The market's 0.62 looks too low. **Bet recommendation (bankroll $1000):** Buy YES. Edge = 0.80 vs 0.62. Full-Kelly ≈ 47% ($470); half-Kelly ≈ $235 for a lower-variance stake given model uncertainty.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.80.**\n\nReasoning: A threshold of 60k is low \u2014 outside recessions, monthly nonfarm payrolls almost always land well above it (typical prints are 100k+). Base-rate P(>60k) in an expansion is roughly 0.90+. Discounting for a meaningful 2026 recession risk (say 20\u201330%) and continued",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 48.9838547706604
}