GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-65
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 43.0, "implied_p": 0.43} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-65", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09, "prob_error": 0.3, "calibration_bin": 3} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 26, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 43.00 cents (implied probability 0.430). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~0.80.** Reasoning: A threshold of 60k is low — outside recessions, monthly nonfarm payrolls almost always land well above it (typical prints are 100k+). Base-rate P(>60k) in an expansion is roughly 0.90+. Discounting for a meaningful 2026 recession risk (say 20–30%) and continued public-sector contraction (federal layoffs can drag the headline even when private payrolls hold up), I land around 0.75–0.85. The market's 0.62 looks too low. **Bet recommendation (bankroll $1000):** Buy YES. Edge = 0.80 vs 0.62. Full-Kelly ≈ 47% ($470); half-Kelly ≈ $235 for a lower-variance stake given model uncertainty.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.80.**\n\nReasoning: A threshold of 60k is low \u2014 outside recessions, monthly nonfarm payrolls almost always land well above it (typical prints are 100k+). Base-rate P(>60k) in an expansion is roughly 0.90+. Discounting for a meaningful 2026 recession risk (say 20\u201330%) and continued",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 48.9838547706604
}