GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-63
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 69.0, "implied_p": 0.69} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-63", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.30000000000000004, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Tyson Fury say during Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek FINAL PRESS CONFERENCE?". The market currently prices YES at 69.00 cents (implied probability 0.690). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~0.70 (roughly at market consensus, since the resolution criteria are unspecified and I have no edge over the crowd here).
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.7,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~0.70 (roughly at market consensus, since the resolution criteria are unspecified and I have no edge over the crowd here).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.25107717514038
}