GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-63

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 40.0, "implied_p": 0.4}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-63", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 7}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Seattle vs San Diego First Inning Run?". The market currently prices YES at 40.00 cents (implied probability 0.400). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

~0.70 (roughly at market consensus, since the resolution criteria are unspecified and I have no edge over the crowd here).

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.7,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "~0.70 (roughly at market consensus, since the resolution criteria are unspecified and I have no edge over the crowd here).",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 19.25107717514038
}