GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-62
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 77.0, "implied_p": 0.77} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-62", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.81, "prob_error": 0.9, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 30000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 77.00 cents (implied probability 0.770). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability that March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceed 30,000: **0.87**. Rationale: months with gains below ~30k are rare outside recessions (post-2010 base rate is roughly 5-10%, excluding COVID shutdowns and strike distortions). A 77¢ market price looks modestly underpriced relative to that base rate, but I discount it slightly because the market may know something (e.g., weak ADP/trend signals, tariffs effects on hiring in early 2026). Using the market-implied 0.77 as the reference odds: Kelly suggests betting ~ (0.87·0.77 − 0.13) / 0.77 ≈ **0.70** of bankroll (~$700) on YES, so $700 would be a reasonable position if forced to bet.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.1,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability that March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceed 30,000: **0.87**.\n\nRationale: months with gains below ~30k are rare outside recessions (post-2010 base rate is roughly 5-10%, excluding COVID shutdowns and strike distortions). A 77\u00a2 market price looks modestly underpriced relative to that base ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.180975914001465
}