GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-59
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-59", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.5041, "prob_error": 0.71, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 15, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 71.00 cents (implied probability 0.710). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
{"probability": 0.71, "confidence": 0.7, "reasoning": "Without the specific price range for Apr 15, 2026 in hand, the market's 71-cent price is my best calibrated estimate of the true probability, as liquid prediction markets price mid-probability events close to fair value."}
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"probability": 0.71,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Without the specific price range for Apr 15, 2026 in hand, the market's 71-cent price is my best calibrated estimate of the true probability, as liquid prediction markets price mid-probability events close to fair value.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 36.693950176239014
}