GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-58
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 75.0, "implied_p": 0.75} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-58", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.36, "prob_error": 0.6, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Shohei Ohtani: 7+ strikeouts?". The market currently prices YES at 75.00 cents (implied probability 0.750). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.60** (60%). Rationale: Ohtani averages ~7 strikeouts per start at his typical ~10.5+ K/9 over ~6 innings, giving roughly a 55-65% chance of 7+ depending on the season/start. I'd price YES at ~60 cents, below the market's 75 cents, which I consider overpriced. With a $1000 bankroll, I'd bet NO at 25 cents (i.e., sell YES at 0.75) sized to my edge via Kelly if allowed.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.6,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.60** (60%).\n\nRationale: Ohtani averages ~7 strikeouts per start at his typical ~10.5+ K/9 over ~6 innings, giving roughly a 55-65% chance of 7+ depending on the season/start. I'd price YES at ~60 cents, below the market's 75 cents, which I consider overpriced.\n\nWith a $1000 bankr",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 30.164210081100464
}