GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-56
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 26.0, "implied_p": 0.26} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-56", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.36, "prob_error": 0.6, "calibration_bin": 6} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?". The market currently prices YES at 26.00 cents (implied probability 0.260). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
60%. The market's 0.61 is close to fair for a 15-minute window, but I'd regress slightly toward 0.50 to account for bid-ask spread and market-maker fees embedded in the price. My honest estimate: 0.60.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.6,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "60%.\n\nThe market's 0.61 is close to fair for a 15-minute window, but I'd regress slightly toward 0.50 to account for bid-ask spread and market-maker fees embedded in the price. My honest estimate: 0.60.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.132305145263672
}