GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-55

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 30.0, "implied_p": 0.3}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-55", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "prob_error": 0.55, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "CPI year-over-year in Mar 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 30.00 cents (implied probability 0.300). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

0.55 — with no match-specific information beyond the market price, I defer to the market's implied probability.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.55,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "0.55 \u2014 with no match-specific information beyond the market price, I defer to the market's implied probability.",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.200659036636353
}