GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-55
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 55.0, "implied_p": 0.55} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-55", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "prob_error": 0.55, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Lens wins by over 2.5 goals?". The market currently prices YES at 55.00 cents (implied probability 0.550). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.55 — with no match-specific information beyond the market price, I defer to the market's implied probability.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.55,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.55 \u2014 with no match-specific information beyond the market price, I defer to the market's implied probability.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 12.200659036636353
}