GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-54
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 42.0, "implied_p": 0.42} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-54", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "prob_error": 0.55, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Mar 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 42.00 cents (implied probability 0.420). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~55%** Reasoning: - Baseline is presumably month-over-month (Feb→Mar). Easter 2026 falls on **April 5**, so the pre-Easter demand run-up lands in March — eggs have historically risen MoM in March most years. - Avian flu supply disruptions add upside skew; the 2025–26 flock rebuild has been slow, keeping prices elevated and volatile. - The market at 42 looks slightly cheap vs. that seasonality, so I'd buy YES — though I wouldn't fully override the market given unknown resolution specifics (e.g., which price index, YoY vs MoM). On your $1000 bankroll, Kelly on YES at 0.42 (odds ~1.38:1) suggests staking roughly **$220–225**, a bit less if you discount for overconfidence/execution risk.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.55,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~55%**\n\nReasoning:\n- Baseline is presumably month-over-month (Feb\u2192Mar). Easter 2026 falls on **April 5**, so the pre-Easter demand run-up lands in March \u2014 eggs have historically risen MoM in March most years.\n- Avian flu supply disruptions add upside skew; the 2025\u201326 flock rebuild",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.51773691177368
}