GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-53
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 47.0, "implied_p": 0.47} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-53", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.22089999999999999, "prob_error": 0.47, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.02?". The market currently prices YES at 47.00 cents (implied probability 0.470). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I have no private information beyond the market, and gas prices are hard to predict without current data. I'd defer close to the market: **~0.47**.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.47,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I have no private information beyond the market, and gas prices are hard to predict without current data. I'd defer close to the market: **~0.47**.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.851919174194336
}