GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-52
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 45.0, "implied_p": 0.45} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-52", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "prob_error": 0.55, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "Will ADL have At Least 40000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for April 2, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 45.00 cents (implied probability 0.450). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **0.45** (~45%). I have no reliable independent data on ADL's projected pure album sales for that chart week, so I anchor to the market price (45¢), which presumably incorporates more information than I have. 40k pure sales is a plausible but not assured bar for this type of release, so I see no strong reason to deviate from the consensus.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.45,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **0.45** (~45%).\n\nI have no reliable independent data on ADL's projected pure album sales for that chart week, so I anchor to the market price (45\u00a2), which presumably incorporates more information than I have. 40k pure sales is a plausible but not assured bar for this type of release",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 18.140089988708496
}