GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-51

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	DeepSeek-V4-Flash
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 23.0, "implied_p": 0.23}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-51", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.48999999999999994, "prob_error": 0.7, "calibration_bin": 7}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?". The market currently prices YES at 23.00 cents (implied probability 0.230). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

**My probability: ~0.70 (70%)** that YES resolves.

Rationale: 80k payroll additions is a low bar — typical monthly nonfarm payroll growth runs 120k–200k+ in normal conditions. Since 2010, payroll gains have fallen below 80k only ~20–25% of months (mostly during soft patches/COVID). Even accounting for labor-market cooling and downside tail risk, the market's 0.49 looks underpriced relative to the historical base rate.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.7,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.70 (70%)** that YES resolves.\n\nRationale: 80k payroll additions is a low bar \u2014 typical monthly nonfarm payroll growth runs 120k\u2013200k+ in normal conditions. Since 2010, payroll gains have fallen below 80k only ~20\u201325% of months (mostly during soft patches/COVID). Even accounting ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 10.950715780258179
}