GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-51
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-51", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.09000000000000002, "prob_error": 0.30000000000000004, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 80000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 49.00 cents (implied probability 0.490). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
**My probability: ~0.70 (70%)** that YES resolves. Rationale: 80k payroll additions is a low bar — typical monthly nonfarm payroll growth runs 120k–200k+ in normal conditions. Since 2010, payroll gains have fallen below 80k only ~20–25% of months (mostly during soft patches/COVID). Even accounting for labor-market cooling and downside tail risk, the market's 0.49 looks underpriced relative to the historical base rate.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.7,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**My probability: ~0.70 (70%)** that YES resolves.\n\nRationale: 80k payroll additions is a low bar \u2014 typical monthly nonfarm payroll growth runs 120k\u2013200k+ in normal conditions. Since 2010, payroll gains have fallen below 80k only ~20\u201325% of months (mostly during soft patches/COVID). Even accounting ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.950715780258179
}