GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-50
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-50", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.019600000000000003, "prob_error": 0.14, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Steven Kwan: 1+ home runs?". The market currently prices YES at 49.00 cents (implied probability 0.490). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
~14%. Steven Kwan is a low-power contact hitter (~0.15 HR/game even in his 2025 breakout; career ~0.08–0.14). P(1+ HR) in a single game ≈ 1 − e^(−λ) ≈ 13–15%. At 49¢ the market is far too rich on YES; I'd take NO at 51¢ as the value side (true NO prob ~86%).
Parsed
{
"action": "hit",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.14,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "~14%. Steven Kwan is a low-power contact hitter (~0.15 HR/game even in his 2025 breakout; career ~0.08\u20130.14). P(1+ HR) in a single game \u2248 1 \u2212 e^(\u2212\u03bb) \u2248 13\u201315%.\n\nAt 49\u00a2 the market is far too rich on YES; I'd take NO at 51\u00a2 as the value side (true NO prob ~86%).",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 22.22291088104248
}