GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-5
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 0.1, "implied_p": 0.001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-5", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0004, "prob_error": 0.02, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "BTC price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 0.10 cents (implied probability 0.001). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
{"probability": 0.02, "confidence": 0.7, "reasoning": "The market price of 2.00 cents represents an efficient aggregation of information, and with no independent signal available I estimate the true probability at approximately the implied 2%."}
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"probability": 0.02,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The market price of 2.00 cents represents an efficient aggregation of information, and with no independent signal available I estimate the true probability at approximately the implied 2%.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 43.437111139297485
}