GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-49
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 37.0, "implied_p": 0.37} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2304, "prob_error": 0.48, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will MrBeast say during Next MrBeast Youtube Video?". The market currently prices YES at 37.00 cents (implied probability 0.370). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.52 — I have no private information about the match beyond the market's own price, so I'd defer to the market. If anything, a tick below (0.51) to account for the exchange's vig making the listed win probability slightly rich, but I'll round to the market's 0.52.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.52,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.52 \u2014 I have no private information about the match beyond the market's own price, so I'd defer to the market. If anything, a tick below (0.51) to account for the exchange's vig making the listed win probability slightly rich, but I'll round to the market's 0.52.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.50284194946289
}