GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-49
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 52.0, "implied_p": 0.52} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-49", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.27040000000000003, "prob_error": 0.52, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Bromley FC win on 2026-04-16?". The market currently prices YES at 52.00 cents (implied probability 0.520). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.52 — I have no private information about the match beyond the market's own price, so I'd defer to the market. If anything, a tick below (0.51) to account for the exchange's vig making the listed win probability slightly rich, but I'll round to the market's 0.52.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.52,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.52 \u2014 I have no private information about the match beyond the market's own price, so I'd defer to the market. If anything, a tick below (0.51) to account for the exchange's vig making the listed win probability slightly rich, but I'll round to the market's 0.52.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 11.50284194946289
}