GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-48
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 59.0, "implied_p": 0.59} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.03240000000000002, "prob_error": 0.18000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 70000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 59.00 cents (implied probability 0.590). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.82** (I'd put the fair range at 0.80–0.85). Rationale: 70,000 is a low bar for monthly nonfarm payroll change. Historically, payrolls exceed +70k in the large majority of months, even through soft patches (2024's weak stretch still averaged ~150k+); meaningful below-70k months are rare outside outright recessions. So the market's 0.59 looks materially underpriced to me — it seems to overweight recession/downside risk. If I'm forced to act on this with $1000: buying YES at 0.59 with p≈0.82 gives edge of 0.23. Kelly fraction ≈ 0.56 → full-Kelly stake ≈ **$560** on YES, or ~$280 if you prefer half-Kelly.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.82,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.82** (I'd put the fair range at 0.80\u20130.85).\n\nRationale: 70,000 is a low bar for monthly nonfarm payroll change. Historically, payrolls exceed +70k in the large majority of months, even through soft patches (2024's weak stretch still averaged ~150k+); meaningful below-70k months ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.299240112304688
}