GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-47
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 53.0, "implied_p": 0.53} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-47", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.22089999999999999, "prob_error": 0.47, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Entertainment): "How many streams will the top song on Spotify's Daily Top Songs Global for Apr 8, 2026 have?". The market currently prices YES at 53.00 cents (implied probability 0.530). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.53. With no private information about Spotify streaming volumes for that date, the efficient market price is my best anchor, so I'd bet it resolves YES at ~53% probability.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.53,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.53. With no private information about Spotify streaming volumes for that date, the efficient market price is my best anchor, so I'd bet it resolves YES at ~53% probability.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.183040142059326
}