GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-47
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 25.0, "implied_p": 0.25} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-47", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.28090000000000004, "prob_error": 0.53, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Mar 26, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 25.00 cents (implied probability 0.250). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.53. With no private information about Spotify streaming volumes for that date, the efficient market price is my best anchor, so I'd bet it resolves YES at ~53% probability.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.53,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.53. With no private information about Spotify streaming volumes for that date, the efficient market price is my best anchor, so I'd bet it resolves YES at ~53% probability.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.183040142059326
}