GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-46

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectDeepSeek-V4-Flash
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 56.0, "implied_p": 0.56}
score{"id": "market-pricing-46", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.2601, "prob_error": 0.51, "calibration_bin": 5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 56.00 cents (implied probability 0.560). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

My probability: **~0.51** (51%).

Reasoning: over a 15-minute horizon, ETH's log-price moves are essentially a symmetric random walk — the positive annual drift is negligible at this timescale (vol ~0.13%/15min, drift ~0.001%), so the base rate is ~50%, not 56%. The market's 56% is slightly inflated (overround + these "up" markets tend to be created right after a run-up, which typically doesn't persist). I'd put fair value at ~50–51%, making NO marginally undervalued at 44c — but with only a ~5-point edge within my uncertainty, I'd bet small or skip.

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.51,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "My probability: **~0.51** (51%).\n\nReasoning: over a 15-minute horizon, ETH's log-price moves are essentially a symmetric random walk \u2014 the positive annual drift is negligible at this timescale (vol ~0.13%/15min, drift ~0.001%), so the base rate is ~50%, not 56%. The market's 56% is slightly inflated",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 27.001571893692017
}