GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-45
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 56.0, "implied_p": 0.56} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-45", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.31360000000000005, "prob_error": 0.56, "calibration_bin": 5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "BNB price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 56.00 cents (implied probability 0.560). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **56%** — matching the market. With no private information about BNB's short-term moves, the market's 56¢ is the best estimate I have. Since my edge is ~0, there's no profitable bet here: the Kelly criterion says to stake nothing (or essentially zero) when your probability equals the market price. I'd pass on this market rather than burn bankroll on a coin flip with no edge.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.56,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **56%** \u2014 matching the market.\n\nWith no private information about BNB's short-term moves, the market's 56\u00a2 is the best estimate I have. Since my edge is ~0, there's no profitable bet here: the Kelly criterion says to stake nothing (or essentially zero) when your probability equals th",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 8.375751972198486
}