GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-44
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 45.0, "implied_p": 0.45} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-44", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.22089999999999999, "prob_error": 0.47, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6564.9999 on Apr 7, 2026 at 10am EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 45.00 cents (implied probability 0.450). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability of YES: **~0.47**. Rationale: The market's 45c price already aggregates information I don't have, so I anchor near it. Equities have a mild positive drift, and 6565 sits only a few percent above recent levels, so I shade slightly above the market rather than below. With no edge, 0.45–0.50 is the defensible range.
Parsed
{
"action": "walk",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.47,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability of YES: **~0.47**.\n\nRationale: The market's 45c price already aggregates information I don't have, so I anchor near it. Equities have a mild positive drift, and 6565 sits only a few percent above recent levels, so I shade slightly above the market rather than below. With no edge, 0.45",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.934420347213745
}