GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-43
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 24.0, "implied_p": 0.24} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-43", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.3249000000000001, "prob_error": 0.5700000000000001, "calibration_bin": 4} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Ezra Taylor vs Willy Hutchinson Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 24.00 cents (implied probability 0.240). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
My probability: **~0.43**, essentially the market's implied probability. I have no private edge on Bitcoin's price 8 months out, so I'd anchor to the market consensus. With $1000 bankroll, the rational move is to **bet ~$0** — Kelly stake with zero edge is zero. If forced to take a side, I'd pass (or hold a token position ≤ $10), since trading against a liquid market without information advantage is negative expected value after fees.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.43,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "My probability: **~0.43**, essentially the market's implied probability. I have no private edge on Bitcoin's price 8 months out, so I'd anchor to the market consensus.\n\nWith $1000 bankroll, the rational move is to **bet ~$0** \u2014 Kelly stake with zero edge is zero. If forced to take a side, I'd pass (",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 17.63198494911194
}